The first alarm came a few days ago, as jihadists swarmed into Aleppo. "There is a risk of a migratory collapse", warned Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani. Now, that "scenario prediction," as sources from the Italian Foreign Ministry described it, seems to have turned into a full-fledged alert after Lebanon announced three days ago its inability to accept more refugees. Amman has closed its borders, and even Turkey's Tayyip Erdogan would find it politically difficult to manage a new Syrian exodus, given the country's current population of 4 million refugees. For many Syrians, the sea path - up to Calabria, via the Ionian route, or up to Greece and then through the Balkans - appears to be the only viable choice. The UN has already spoken about 370 thousand displaced people, with at least 60-80 thousand in northeast Syria. Many of them will come in Italy to either stay or travel to Germany.