The Cerved Industry Forecast, which analyzes the evolution of Italian company revenues, predicts a positive trend in Italian turnover in the two-year period 2025-2026: the driving force will be national consumption, the decline in inflation, the recovery of exports, and the new expansionary path of European monetary policy. However, there is still considerable uncertainty, particularly over Made in Italy products such as mineral water and extra virgin olive oil, which face potential tariff risks. In terms of real, or deflated, turnover, Italian enterprises are expected to increase by 1.2% in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026, respectively. A change in speed from the previous year, when the production system slowed, and revenues fell (-0.9% in real terms). Despite the conclusion of the tax-bonus season, construction is expected to profit from the launch of infrastructure development sites linked to the NRRP, while the real estate market will be aided by a partial decline in rates and mortgages. Conversely, the U.S. trade policy toward Europe is concerning, as it affects several Made in Italy products, including mineral water, extra virgin olive oil, and prosecco.
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