The growth of the Italian economy will only regain momentum in 2026, GDP in 2025 is expected to grow mostly in line with what was observed in 2024: in the scenario of the Confindustria Studies Center, an annual increase of +0.6% is expected after last year's +0.7%. "Growth in 2026, on the other hand, is expected to regain momentum, at +1%," analysts explain in their spring forecasts. For 2025, compared to last October's scenario, there is a downward revision of the GDP growth forecast by -0.3 percentage points, and in addition, "the macroeconomic framework that forms the backdrop to this scenario has some new elements, which are negative in tone”. On the negative side, Confindustria notes, "acting is yet another increase in energy prices, which does not touch the peaks of 2022 but threatens the competitiveness of Italian companies and reduces the disposable income of families". But above all, on the negative side, "the wave of tariffs announced by the U.S. administration is acting, which risks destabilizing the world economy and, in particular, the Italian economy, whose exposure is high, given that the U.S. is the second largest market for our goods". Any protectionist escalation involving a persistent, rather than temporary, rise in uncertainty (+80% over 2024), the imposition of 25% duties on all U.S. imports, including those from Europe, and 60% from China, and the application of retaliatory tariffs on exported U.S. consumer goods, would have a cumulative negative impact on Italian GDP, measured as a deviation from the baseline scenario, of -0.4% in 2025 and -0.6% in 2026.