The increase in trade tariffs announced by the US government led by Donald Trump will have a limited impact on the Italian economy. According to the Unimpresa Study Center, just one-third of Italian companies export to the United States — approximately 34,000 enterprises — and more than half of the exported value is generated by companies with more than 250 people, which are more structured and capable of absorbing shocks. Italy sends about 10% of its total exports to the U.S., with a high-quality composition: 43% of products are high-end, 49% mid-range, and only 8% low-end, which are more price-sensitive. Italian companies generate, on average, 5.5% of their revenue in the United States, with an EBITDA margin of 10%. According to estimates by the Unimpresa Research Center, tariffs of 20–25% could lead to a 1% drop in the total revenue of exporting companies, and a reduction in margins by up to 0.5 percentage points for 75% of the businesses affected. The most exposed sectors are pharmaceuticals (24% of added value linked to the U.S.), shipbuilding and aerospace (15%), followed by furniture, electronics, fashion, and automotive (ranging between 6% and 8%). Small enterprises are more exposed, with less diversification and lower profit margins.
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